Barack Obama: 44th President of the United States

Congratulations are due to President-elect Barack Obama. The election is now over and all Americans will look to Obama to deliver on the promises of hope and inspiration from his campaign. Obama will have a hard road ahead of him to fix the problems that face this country. I hope all Americans can unite behind him on the path towards our common goals. I for one, have full faith in him.

Live Bloggin' Election '08

I'm live-blogging the election tonight with all my thoughts and analysis. Check in often as I plan to post as much as I can. Will probably be up till 11 or 12 EST tonight so check back until then.

7:20 PM EST: Hello to everyone out there. CNN has just called Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama. Lunsford is running surprising close to McConnell, back by only 2 percentage points. Florida and Indiana are in McCain's column early but both look close and Indiana looks like it will be a nail-biter. Warner seems to have picked up a Democratic senate seat in Virgina. Things are looking pretty good for the Dems early.

8:08 PM EST: Obama has just picked up a bunch of states he was supposed to win including Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois. McCain has won South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Bruce Lunsford has tied McConnell in Kentucy, things could surely get interesting as far as the "60 goal".

8:39 PM EST: Obama has just won Pennsylvania and may be on the way to a rout as he is running ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Joe Biden has also won his senate race so regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, Biden will still have a job come the new year.

8:53 PM EST: Kay Hagan has just defeated Liddy Dole in the North Carolina senate race. This was slightly expected but the margins Hagan is running up actually surpasses that of Obama. Kentucky looks like it will narrowly go McConnell so unless the dems can pick off the Georgia seat they will be stuck somewhere around 58-59 seats.

9:05 PM EST: Obama has just won Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. John McCain's path to victory is shrinking and he may have already lost the race. McCain would have to hold on to every Bush state at this point to chart a course to the White House. He won a semi-battleground state in North Dakota, but that is far from a general election victory.

9:32 PM EST: Obama just won Ohio. Stick a fork in McCain, he is done.

9:43 PM EST: Jack Markell has won the race for governor of Delaware. I volunteered briefly for the Markell election bid and I can tell you it was Markell's ground game that won him the primary and propelled him to the governorship. You can toss this one up to the "Jack Pack".

9:59 PM EST: Obama looks on track to win Virginia and North Carolina. He has already won Iowa and New Mexico. McCain would have to win some combination of California, Hawaii, Oregon or Washington to win the race. At this point, Obama would like to have a landslide victory to have a voter "mandate" for his movement.

10:30 PM EST: Still waiting on results from Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Looks like Obama has a chance of taking all four of 'em. Indiana's democratic hot spots still don't have all precincts in and Obama is down by less than 10,000. Lautenberg and Obama won New Jersey...yawn.

10:59 PM EST: Obama has won Virginia and officially...the Presidency.

11:35 PM EST: McCain conceded and Bush has called Obama. With that I'm calling it a night!

It's Finally Here!

The race for 2008 has taken me a very long way. From the winter chill of November 5th, 2004 to the beginning of the campaign in something like August of '07, to Caesar Rodney Square in Wilmington, DE on a cold winter day in January of 2008 to the point we are at now. This election is historic not because of the people in it, but because of the way it has truly shaped our culture. Here are some of my favorite moments from the 2008 race:

1. SNL Comedy: Never has SNL been more popular with their dead on impersonations of people such as Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Keith Olberman, Bill Clinton, John McCain and Nancy Pelosi. Am I forgetting anyone? Sarah Palin was by far the most interesting portrayal of them all and Tina Fey deserves an Academy Award in my mind.

2. Gaffes, Fumbles, and Joe Biden: I have enjoyed hanging on every word Biden has spoken since August as we have been given quite a hefty amount of interesting material to work with. According to Biden, Frankie Roosevelt was broadcast on the TV, Obama will be tested during his first year as president and apparently Obama's last name is...America? Thanks for the memories Joe!

3. The Primaries: From Iowa "hearting" Huckabees, the RomneyBot 2000 falling short, Hillary Clinton's tearing up in New Hampshire and Rudy Giuliani going from a front-runner to a not-so-much runner, this has been a primary season to remember. The Democratic primary was especially engaging, as people were voting well into June, truly a sign of a great democracy. Although some people will claim the Republican primary was nothing special, we surely had cliffhangers in Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Iowa and South Carolina.

4. Sarah Palin: I feel she deserves a section of her own. Who will ever forget lipstick on a pig, wardrobe malfunctions, teenage pregnancies, and hockey moms. We found out more about Palin's personal life over these last three months or so then anything she stood for. Although she may eventually be blamed for John McCain's downfall, she was sure entertaining to watch.

5. Joe The Plumber & other Campaign Distractions: This has truly been an election of popular culture as Joe the Plumber dominated headlines for referring to Obama as Socialist and campaigning for McCain. Obama has been a celebrity, socialist, messiah and terrorist all in the same election season. Absorb that statement for a minute.

I will try and live-blog the election starting around 4 0r 5 PM. Hopefully I can post at least once an hour with my thoughts, opinions and analysis. See you tomorrow, don't forget to vote!

My Electoral Map Predictions

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Sarah Palin-omics

This has been quite the whirlwind year for Sarah Palin. Many people are split on whether she ultimately helped or hurt John McCain's chances at the United States presidency. Although I didn't agree with her on most of her stances, I liked her a lot as a person and thought she was very interesting and down to earth.

However she has certainly provided a large amount of late-night fodder. Not limited to: the winks and folksy talk during the debate, the wardrobe malfunctions and the constant focus on her family during the beginning. Ultimately I think history will view her as a Dan Quayle-type politician and the run in '12 she has hinted at, will be fruitless at best.

I say that because Palin in essence is a combination of Mike Huckabee and Karl Rove. I make that connection because she combines folksy religious-ness with red-meat conservative platforms. Huckabee proved that evangelicals do not have enough pull in the party to anoint their own candidate and Rove left the White House weakened at best. Telling people that Democrats are "soft" on national security and god-less when it comes to religion, will only work for so long in elections. Eventually those criticisms fall on deaf ears.

Palin can salvage her reputation by spearheading a diversified group of issues and beefing up her foreign policy experience from now until '12. If she is able to shake off those issues and keep her personality, she could transform herself into a George Bush II style candidate with religious principles and compassionate conservatism. Although Bush seems to be vilified for all the nation's problems, he did win two terms didn't he?

Election Day 2008 Predictions

It seems like ages ago when we first began talking about 2008, oh wait, that's because it was! The 2008 race has been on our collective minds since the moment John Kerry lost in '04. I remember reading a Yahoo article on the Wednesday morning after Kerry's defeat which raised the question of who would be president in '08.

I went through a personal lull around August of 2008 because I was tired of hearing about 2008 every single time I turned on the TV. I was back into the race for good on a snowy January day when I witnessed Barack Obama speak to 20,000 strong in Caesar Rodney Square in Wilmington, DE. Enough of my nostalgic feelings, lets get to the predictions:

2008 Presidential Race:

Barack Obama: 326 Electoral Votes
John McCain: 212 Electoral Votes

I think Obama will win Ohio, North Carolina and Virgina while McCain will win Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

2008 Senate Race:

Democrats will pick up eight senate seats winning Alaska, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota. They will fall short of the 60 seat majority.

2008 House Race:

I think this is where Democrats do the real damage and wind up with 255 members. Sweeping most of the close races and felling the last New England Republican, Chris Shays. Other victims of the tide will include Michelle Bachman, Don Young, Jon Porter, Jean Schmidt, Phil English and Dave Reichert.

Bonus Round Predictions:

1. One of the two, Dick Lugar or Chuck Hagel, will be in Obama's cabinet.
2. Joe Lieberman will be kicked out of the Democratic caucus if Democrats do not reach 60 votes and will be replaced by Arlen Specter and at least one other Senator.
3. Obama's Secretary of State will more than likely be Bill Richardson.
4. Obama's first Supreme Court nominee with either be Deval Patrick or Hillary Clinton.
5. "Joe the Plumber" will run for U.S. Congress in 2010 and lose.
6. Democrats will score decisive gains across the United States as down-ticket politicians ride Obama's coattails to victory.
7. Ed Rendell will be in Barack Obama's cabinet.
8. Joe Biden will be replaced as US Senator by one of the three: Ruth Ann Minner, John Carney or Beau Biden.
9. Bristol Palin will give her child a weird/strange name.
10. The finger-pointing after John McCain's defeat will be legendary.

Redistribution of Ignorance?

People are making a lot of noise about "socialism" these days. You know, that scary monster our grandparent's generation battled and thankfully defeated in the 40's and 50's. People say they don't want a redistribution of wealth and fear that under an Obama presidency.

Here is the real kicker, we already redistribute wealth in this country! We have been doing so since 1913, so you can thank Woodrow Wilson for that one! Where do you think the money for public schools, infrastructure, social programs and war funding comes from? Although it is true that the United States has one of the highest income tax burdens in the world, the company we keep shows you why that might not be such a bad thing.

If you are going to be pissed about Obama's plan, you should do so for the right reasons. Perhaps you are a firm believer in the "trickle-down" effect of tax cuts and would prefer higher earners get tax cuts as well or maybe you think low-income workers should remain at their same level. Just don't call it socialism because under that definition, America is already socialist.

The Obama Train Slipping Off Of The Tracks

Obama's lead in the electoral college is starting to slip away before our eyes. The upper Midwest (states like MN, WI, MI) is starting to slip away and places where he was competitive before (MT, SD, NC) are starting to move more towards McCain. The strange part to me is that Obama has been under greater fire during previous spots in this election. I thought the Jeremiah Wright situation, "they cling to their guns" and the Hillary Clinton drama at the convention should have all been worse moments than right now.

However I am going to make a few bold predictions. I will say right now that Obama will win the election handily. By this I mean he will win more than 300 electoral votes. You are probably wondering how I came by this figure. First I look at the InTrade prediction market which I have a click able picture up above. Obama is currently around 51% to win election while McCain is at 49%. I figure the polls used to calculate this figure don't include young voters who primarily use cell phones and aren't included in land line polls like Gallup. These figures also don't include minority voters as these voters are much more unlikely to participate in the survey or have a land line phone. With this in mind I increase Obama's percentage in every state by 2-4%.

With that change we can immediately add Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio and possibly Florida. This also means he holds onto all the previous Kerry states. This takes into account young voters and minorities actually showing up at the polls. I think there is still a high enthusiasm for him which will push him into victory. If he can survive the "lull" before the debates he should be set for victory.

EDIT (10/19/08):

Looks like I was right!

Sarah Palin: A Hot MILF?

Lets get one thing straight before we continue. Sarah Palin is a hot MILF. In case you are not familiar with the term, please reference it here. Unlike most people, I had heard of Palin before 2008. When she ran for governor in 2006 I watched with mild interest because she was about to become the first female governor of Alaska. However after being inundated by constant media coverage surrounding her, I am really enjoying my daily dose of Sarah.

Not only does the woman like to hunt and ride motorcycles but she is also into fishing, camping and other "outdoorsy" things. That right there definitely moves her to the top of my "short list"! Looks like John McCain and I are twins! I had been worried for months that I would have to watch Mitt Romney's perfect hair follicles dominate my TV but we got to trade Mitt for Sarah Palin. That is like taking your beat up Datsun to the auto dealer and getting a Mercedes in exchange.

Palin is extremely conservative but if she makes it to the White House, we will have four years of media coverage on her to salivate over. I can just imagine the headlines now: Things are Steaming Up In Alaska, Global Warming Or Crotch Warming? or even Palin: The First Ever GILF? That is a lot better than having to listen to Mitt Romeny drovel on about how he is Regan reincarnated. Why can't we just vote for Obama/Palin '08?

The American Portrait: Debunker Central

There are a lot of crazy myths, strange stories and pointless coverage coming out of the election news these past two weeks. I am starting to wonder who the media loves to cover more, Barack Obama or Sarah Palin. It seems every political story is revolving around Palin ever since she entered the race last week.

1. Sarah Palin's Daughter is News: Actually I think it's pretty disgusting that the media is all over Bristol Palin like white on rice. I remember the first time I saw her on TV, I thought she was older and was very cute. The fact that she is keeping her baby and has not withered under the intense media pressure only elevates her in my opinion. The baby's father is going to make an appearance at the RNC. He really should have been through her side throughout this whole thing but has been MIA so far.

2. Sarah Palin & Barack Obama are Inexperienced: Experience is what you make of it. Barack Obama has served as a state senator for seven years and as a community organizer before that. He has had to deal with people on a daily basis for most of his life. Just because he doesn't have a lot of high media scrutinized experience does not mean he is an "average Joe" off the street. As for Sarah Palin, she has been a mayor, governor and has sat on various committees throughout her time in Alaska politics. While she doesn't have the "typical" experience wanted, she isn't running for president she is running for vice president. The role of that job is to complement the president with your life experiences and background.

3. Barack Obama & John McCain are Mavericks Who Work Across the Aisle: This is very untrue. Obama is very liberal and McCain is very conservative. There hasn't been such a difference in the candidates running since possibly Mondale and Reagan. McCain likes to call himself a maverick because he has disagreed with his party on a few well publicized events. Just because you became an outcast in your party doesn't mean you are a maverick. Likewise Obama has been a reliable democratic vote. I actually think Hillary Clinton is more centrist than he is. However his independent appeal makes him seem centrist.

4. Sarah Palin was Vetted: It really seems like John McCain made a spur of the moment pick with Palin. My gut tells me he was going to go with Ridge or Liberman and at the 11th hour somebody talked him out of it after he had already called Romney and Pawlenty. Palin was such a surprise pick that even some of McCain's staffers were surprised. The fact that the Republican party is just now sending a team of lawyers to Alaska to make sure no more "surprises" come out, is a pretty big sign that this was a rush job. I think if Palin and her family can make it through the convention they should be fine however the stress it is putting on her family would not be worth it if it was me.

5: The Presidential Race is Close: Barack Obama may be headed to a landslide victory in the electoral college but a slim popular vote majority. He is very close to McCain in states such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The problem for McCain is that Obama has had excitement from his base since January. He has extensive operations in all of these states save Florida and Michigan. I would not be surprised if Obama took most of the states previously listed. I was skeptical about Florida but there are internet rumors that link Sarah Palin to Pat Buchanan who is despised by people of the Jewish faith. With Florida's large Jewish population, Florida will get closer.

Socialites Around The Horn

Over the past week I have become very impressed with Paris Hilton. Long an afterthought in my mind due to her lack of contribution to society and generally adolescent behavior, she has injected herself into the presidential race like no socialite ever before. In reality it was really John McCain who dragged her into the race but instead of ignoring it or giving irrelevant and un-educated sound bites about it, she has fired back.

In a quirky and intelligent (gasp) ad, she discusses (jokingly of course) how she is now running for president and that she is a celebrity too. Bashing against the "white-haired guy" and the guy for change, she talks about her own hybrid energy plan which really was very interesting.

I never knew she had it in her and my opinion of her has definitely increased. One can only hope Britney Spears will issue a similar ad and give us her positions on health care or terrorism.

EDIT: Seems like CNN agrees as they totally just stole my phrase calling Hilton's ad: "quirky". I made that phrase up, not you CNN!

The Youth Vote: I'm Skeptical

Many eons ago in the year of our lord 2004, youth voters were supposed to be all the rage. With get out the vote efforts such as "Vote or Die" spearheaded by Sean Combs and other famous moguls, 2004 was supposed to be the high point for the youth voter. In some respects it was as youth voting surged eleven points to crest at a respectable (but not overwhelming) 47%. However youth voters did not decide the election as many thought they would.

As we approach November 2008, lo and behold youth voters are all the rage again. With Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, some pundits feel the youth and "trendy" vote will catapult Obama to the White House. However I am skeptical after dissecting the true numbers. With all the hoopla and uproar for the youth vote in 2004 the turnout could not beat that for youth voters in 1992.

In 1992 there was no famous actors spearheading the vote, no "Vote or Die" campaigns and no national movement for the youth vote but that year was able to beat 2004 by 2 percentage points. If I were advising the Obama campaign I would view youth voters as a potential prize and not a lynchpin for the campaign. Potential in the sense that you never know when these historically fickle voters will show up. If the "trendy" appeal to vote Obama in November were to somehow wear away, it will be a long cold winter for Democrats.

The Town Hall Dilemma

With the news that Barack Obama has failed to agree with John McCain on his proposal of a town-hall style debate offer, the revolutionary style of debate will most likely not be seen (in the proposed form) during this campaign cycle. While both campaigns may try to paint different pictures of why the debates failed there is one reason the debates failed: potential advantages.

First, John McCain could only benefit from having these debates with the free-air time it provides and the ability to link himself to any Obama news in the media. McCain has largely been an afterthought in this campaign as "the other guy" overshadowed most times by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Having these debates injects him back into the conversation and helps him compete with Obama who is leagues above him in fund raising prowess.

However Obama knows that when voters come out in November they will either reject Obama or support Obama, McCain will just be the other option. By keeping the focus on him he makes this November vote not an election but a referendum on himself. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.