My Electoral Map Predictions

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Socialized Medicine: Grab a Number

I've been skeptical of socialized medicine for a long time. This is basically the idea that health care can be free for all and provided by the government. Just imagine health care turning into the New Jersey DMV with long waiting lines, sub-standard service and endless mounds of forms. Sounds like a scary Halloween movie plot line to me.

In theory, socialized medicine is a great idea because everything would go smoothly and everyone would receive the same level of care. In reality, different parts of the country would have different care and urban areas would see long lines and doctors stressed from dealing with the sheer number of patients they would have to see. In a utopian society, pharmaceutical companies would have no objections to dealing with the government and paying less than market value for their drugs. However under socialized medicine, we would see less people enter the field of medicinal research, leading to less breakthroughs and substandard medication.

What should be done instead? How about creating health clinics in populated urban areas that offer free care, provided an appointment is made. People would have access to preventative care and this would more than likely ease the stress of area emergency rooms as problems could be diagnosed and addressed earlier. Having appointment only scheduling would keep wait times relatively short and allow doctors to avoid "assembly line" appointments.

If you don't like that idea, perhaps creating funding to merge health care service into the public school system. We could have children get to see a doctor once a year for a checkup and they wouldn't even have to leave the school to do it. In my mind, health care is one issue that cannot be solved by bigger government.

Sarah Palin-omics

This has been quite the whirlwind year for Sarah Palin. Many people are split on whether she ultimately helped or hurt John McCain's chances at the United States presidency. Although I didn't agree with her on most of her stances, I liked her a lot as a person and thought she was very interesting and down to earth.

However she has certainly provided a large amount of late-night fodder. Not limited to: the winks and folksy talk during the debate, the wardrobe malfunctions and the constant focus on her family during the beginning. Ultimately I think history will view her as a Dan Quayle-type politician and the run in '12 she has hinted at, will be fruitless at best.

I say that because Palin in essence is a combination of Mike Huckabee and Karl Rove. I make that connection because she combines folksy religious-ness with red-meat conservative platforms. Huckabee proved that evangelicals do not have enough pull in the party to anoint their own candidate and Rove left the White House weakened at best. Telling people that Democrats are "soft" on national security and god-less when it comes to religion, will only work for so long in elections. Eventually those criticisms fall on deaf ears.

Palin can salvage her reputation by spearheading a diversified group of issues and beefing up her foreign policy experience from now until '12. If she is able to shake off those issues and keep her personality, she could transform herself into a George Bush II style candidate with religious principles and compassionate conservatism. Although Bush seems to be vilified for all the nation's problems, he did win two terms didn't he?

Election Day 2008 Predictions

It seems like ages ago when we first began talking about 2008, oh wait, that's because it was! The 2008 race has been on our collective minds since the moment John Kerry lost in '04. I remember reading a Yahoo article on the Wednesday morning after Kerry's defeat which raised the question of who would be president in '08.

I went through a personal lull around August of 2008 because I was tired of hearing about 2008 every single time I turned on the TV. I was back into the race for good on a snowy January day when I witnessed Barack Obama speak to 20,000 strong in Caesar Rodney Square in Wilmington, DE. Enough of my nostalgic feelings, lets get to the predictions:

2008 Presidential Race:

Barack Obama: 326 Electoral Votes
John McCain: 212 Electoral Votes

I think Obama will win Ohio, North Carolina and Virgina while McCain will win Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

2008 Senate Race:

Democrats will pick up eight senate seats winning Alaska, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota. They will fall short of the 60 seat majority.

2008 House Race:

I think this is where Democrats do the real damage and wind up with 255 members. Sweeping most of the close races and felling the last New England Republican, Chris Shays. Other victims of the tide will include Michelle Bachman, Don Young, Jon Porter, Jean Schmidt, Phil English and Dave Reichert.

Bonus Round Predictions:

1. One of the two, Dick Lugar or Chuck Hagel, will be in Obama's cabinet.
2. Joe Lieberman will be kicked out of the Democratic caucus if Democrats do not reach 60 votes and will be replaced by Arlen Specter and at least one other Senator.
3. Obama's Secretary of State will more than likely be Bill Richardson.
4. Obama's first Supreme Court nominee with either be Deval Patrick or Hillary Clinton.
5. "Joe the Plumber" will run for U.S. Congress in 2010 and lose.
6. Democrats will score decisive gains across the United States as down-ticket politicians ride Obama's coattails to victory.
7. Ed Rendell will be in Barack Obama's cabinet.
8. Joe Biden will be replaced as US Senator by one of the three: Ruth Ann Minner, John Carney or Beau Biden.
9. Bristol Palin will give her child a weird/strange name.
10. The finger-pointing after John McCain's defeat will be legendary.

Philadelphia Phillies: 2008 World Series Champs!

In case you haven't heard, my hometown team, the Philadelphia Phillies, just won the World Series and are the BEST team in baseball. This championship really belongs to Philadelphia fans who patiently stuck with their baseball team for 28 years (25 of which spent waiting for any championship).

Philly fans take a lot of heat for being passionate about their sports. You will not find another city that rewards hard work and dedication and punishes lack thereof like we do. For one year we can say we are truly the "team to beat".

Redistribution of Ignorance: Part II

"We're going to take on Wall Street speculators and bring them to justice". That line has been uttered by many campaigns across the country, whether they be presidential, congressional or state races. It has been quite the rallying cry for people who are angry after seeing their 401k or investments go down the drain.

What exactly is a "Wall Street Speculator"? Well just about every single American is a Wall St. Speculator if they invest in a mutual fund, have a 401k or invest in stocks on the side. Being a speculator doesn't mean that you just hedge on companies to go up or down, it means you invest in stocks period! By investing in mutual funds, 401ks and other investments we are betting the economy will drive businesses to success and thus increase our stake in the company to a higher monetary value.

Another bit of breaking news: Since when has betting on companies been outside of our typical human nature to make money? Everybody is a speculator on something, for example, I speculate that I will retire one day so I'm saving for retirement. Does this make me a retirement speculator? Everybody is looking to point fingers at some scapegoat for the failure of the markets when the true culprit is the society we live in which over the last two decades has become increasingly loose on credit and crying out for transparency.

Redistribution of Ignorance?

People are making a lot of noise about "socialism" these days. You know, that scary monster our grandparent's generation battled and thankfully defeated in the 40's and 50's. People say they don't want a redistribution of wealth and fear that under an Obama presidency.

Here is the real kicker, we already redistribute wealth in this country! We have been doing so since 1913, so you can thank Woodrow Wilson for that one! Where do you think the money for public schools, infrastructure, social programs and war funding comes from? Although it is true that the United States has one of the highest income tax burdens in the world, the company we keep shows you why that might not be such a bad thing.

If you are going to be pissed about Obama's plan, you should do so for the right reasons. Perhaps you are a firm believer in the "trickle-down" effect of tax cuts and would prefer higher earners get tax cuts as well or maybe you think low-income workers should remain at their same level. Just don't call it socialism because under that definition, America is already socialist.