Thursday, September 18, 2008

The Obama Train Slipping Off Of The Tracks

Obama's lead in the electoral college is starting to slip away before our eyes. The upper Midwest (states like MN, WI, MI) is starting to slip away and places where he was competitive before (MT, SD, NC) are starting to move more towards McCain. The strange part to me is that Obama has been under greater fire during previous spots in this election. I thought the Jeremiah Wright situation, "they cling to their guns" and the Hillary Clinton drama at the convention should have all been worse moments than right now.

However I am going to make a few bold predictions. I will say right now that Obama will win the election handily. By this I mean he will win more than 300 electoral votes. You are probably wondering how I came by this figure. First I look at the InTrade prediction market which I have a click able picture up above. Obama is currently around 51% to win election while McCain is at 49%. I figure the polls used to calculate this figure don't include young voters who primarily use cell phones and aren't included in land line polls like Gallup. These figures also don't include minority voters as these voters are much more unlikely to participate in the survey or have a land line phone. With this in mind I increase Obama's percentage in every state by 2-4%.

With that change we can immediately add Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio and possibly Florida. This also means he holds onto all the previous Kerry states. This takes into account young voters and minorities actually showing up at the polls. I think there is still a high enthusiasm for him which will push him into victory. If he can survive the "lull" before the debates he should be set for victory.

EDIT (10/19/08):

Looks like I was right!

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