An American Idol Experience: Part II

When people watch American Idol (and other shows) on TV they see little of what goes on in the "background" of the production. Many of TV's viewers will never see the strange people I encountered, the grueling dedication contestants had to give to the show or the sheer size of how massive the auditions were.

I left my apartment at 4:00 in the morning for the Idol Auditions which were in East Rutherford, NJ at the Izod Center. After an hour of driving I arrived to find a massive car line for people who did not have E-Z Pass. Luckily for me, I had E-Z pass and was able to escape the massive car line from people who had come from all over. After waiting in line from 5:00 am to 8:30 am we were finally let into the actual stadium itself. I had pre-registered the day before and thought I had made a smart decision and would be at the front of the line. Turns out everyone had pre-registered and I was very close to the end of the 18,000+ contestants.

So for the rest of the day I walked around past teenage divas who had dragged their parents along for the misery, misunderstood "superstars" who had yet to become discovered, thug types who "thought" they could sing and various other interesting groups. I did not get auditioned till 10:00 pm. For those counting, that was 18 hours from the time I left my apartment till I was seen. Even though I had brought a backpack full of food, I battled hunger, insanity and off-key singing all day. Would I do it again? Probably, the experience was something I was glad I had, so I could know exactly the struggle and dedication it takes to become a "star".

An American Idol Experience: Part I

I have always been fascinated by Reality TV shows in the sense that I wonder what really goes on behind the scenes when the show is being filmed. In August I made the decision I would try out for American Idol in New York City. I knew I was probably setting myself up for an intense adventure in America's greatest city but I was suprised at how undaunted I was in pursuing it.

The first thing I was made aware of is the fact that the auditions were in New Jersey and not in New York although they claim to be in New York. The reasoning for this is that the audition is actually split up into multiple days. The first day is held in a stadium or arena and can feature as many as 20,000 applicants. Simon, Randy and Paula are not at this first event. People trying out audition with producers from the show and the producers themselves select the people who will advance to the "next" round.

This next round involves a contestant who has progressed to this point to audition in front of several A.I. producers instead of just one. The contestant must also change their song selection and may be asked to sing a certain song by the producers. If the contestant makes it past this stage they will be asked to return to a new location at a different date to audition in front of Simon, Randy and Paula.

Why Obama Won: New Democrats

Barack Obama won for many reasons including the current state of the economy, John McCain's ties to President Bush and Obama's call for change. However, something overlooked seems to be the "style" of Obama's campaign which falls along the lines of "New Democrats". "New Democrat" was the moniker applied to Bill Clinton's campaign which ran on a populist tone calling for "change". Where have we heard that before?

Before Clinton, John F. Kennedy also ran as a young candidate calling for change and inspired Americans with his message. On the flip side, John Kerry and Al Gore ran stiff campaigns that lacked inspiration and emotion. If Al Gore had run for president with his personality now, he would have won. The label of stiffness and blandness was something that did Gore no favors. Kerry lost because of his un-willingness to defend himself against smears and his lackluster campaign. Obama tackled every arrow thrown at him by McCain and did an excellent job of spinning McCain's criticisms as smears and lies.

Remember that even though Clinton was nearly impeached, he left with one of the highest approval ratings of any president since World War II with 65% of the public approving of his administration. If Obama shapes his presidency in the mold of Clinton and Kennedy and works with Republicans to craft centrist legislation, there is no doubt he will be successful.

Barack Obama: 44th President of the United States

Congratulations are due to President-elect Barack Obama. The election is now over and all Americans will look to Obama to deliver on the promises of hope and inspiration from his campaign. Obama will have a hard road ahead of him to fix the problems that face this country. I hope all Americans can unite behind him on the path towards our common goals. I for one, have full faith in him.

Live Bloggin' Election '08

I'm live-blogging the election tonight with all my thoughts and analysis. Check in often as I plan to post as much as I can. Will probably be up till 11 or 12 EST tonight so check back until then.

7:20 PM EST: Hello to everyone out there. CNN has just called Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama. Lunsford is running surprising close to McConnell, back by only 2 percentage points. Florida and Indiana are in McCain's column early but both look close and Indiana looks like it will be a nail-biter. Warner seems to have picked up a Democratic senate seat in Virgina. Things are looking pretty good for the Dems early.

8:08 PM EST: Obama has just picked up a bunch of states he was supposed to win including Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois. McCain has won South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Bruce Lunsford has tied McConnell in Kentucy, things could surely get interesting as far as the "60 goal".

8:39 PM EST: Obama has just won Pennsylvania and may be on the way to a rout as he is running ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Joe Biden has also won his senate race so regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, Biden will still have a job come the new year.

8:53 PM EST: Kay Hagan has just defeated Liddy Dole in the North Carolina senate race. This was slightly expected but the margins Hagan is running up actually surpasses that of Obama. Kentucky looks like it will narrowly go McConnell so unless the dems can pick off the Georgia seat they will be stuck somewhere around 58-59 seats.

9:05 PM EST: Obama has just won Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. John McCain's path to victory is shrinking and he may have already lost the race. McCain would have to hold on to every Bush state at this point to chart a course to the White House. He won a semi-battleground state in North Dakota, but that is far from a general election victory.

9:32 PM EST: Obama just won Ohio. Stick a fork in McCain, he is done.

9:43 PM EST: Jack Markell has won the race for governor of Delaware. I volunteered briefly for the Markell election bid and I can tell you it was Markell's ground game that won him the primary and propelled him to the governorship. You can toss this one up to the "Jack Pack".

9:59 PM EST: Obama looks on track to win Virginia and North Carolina. He has already won Iowa and New Mexico. McCain would have to win some combination of California, Hawaii, Oregon or Washington to win the race. At this point, Obama would like to have a landslide victory to have a voter "mandate" for his movement.

10:30 PM EST: Still waiting on results from Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Looks like Obama has a chance of taking all four of 'em. Indiana's democratic hot spots still don't have all precincts in and Obama is down by less than 10,000. Lautenberg and Obama won New Jersey...yawn.

10:59 PM EST: Obama has won Virginia and officially...the Presidency.

11:35 PM EST: McCain conceded and Bush has called Obama. With that I'm calling it a night!

My Electoral Map Predictions

<p><strong>><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Socialized Medicine: Grab a Number

I've been skeptical of socialized medicine for a long time. This is basically the idea that health care can be free for all and provided by the government. Just imagine health care turning into the New Jersey DMV with long waiting lines, sub-standard service and endless mounds of forms. Sounds like a scary Halloween movie plot line to me.

In theory, socialized medicine is a great idea because everything would go smoothly and everyone would receive the same level of care. In reality, different parts of the country would have different care and urban areas would see long lines and doctors stressed from dealing with the sheer number of patients they would have to see. In a utopian society, pharmaceutical companies would have no objections to dealing with the government and paying less than market value for their drugs. However under socialized medicine, we would see less people enter the field of medicinal research, leading to less breakthroughs and substandard medication.

What should be done instead? How about creating health clinics in populated urban areas that offer free care, provided an appointment is made. People would have access to preventative care and this would more than likely ease the stress of area emergency rooms as problems could be diagnosed and addressed earlier. Having appointment only scheduling would keep wait times relatively short and allow doctors to avoid "assembly line" appointments.

If you don't like that idea, perhaps creating funding to merge health care service into the public school system. We could have children get to see a doctor once a year for a checkup and they wouldn't even have to leave the school to do it. In my mind, health care is one issue that cannot be solved by bigger government.

Election Day 2008 Predictions

It seems like ages ago when we first began talking about 2008, oh wait, that's because it was! The 2008 race has been on our collective minds since the moment John Kerry lost in '04. I remember reading a Yahoo article on the Wednesday morning after Kerry's defeat which raised the question of who would be president in '08.

I went through a personal lull around August of 2008 because I was tired of hearing about 2008 every single time I turned on the TV. I was back into the race for good on a snowy January day when I witnessed Barack Obama speak to 20,000 strong in Caesar Rodney Square in Wilmington, DE. Enough of my nostalgic feelings, lets get to the predictions:

2008 Presidential Race:

Barack Obama: 326 Electoral Votes
John McCain: 212 Electoral Votes

I think Obama will win Ohio, North Carolina and Virgina while McCain will win Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

2008 Senate Race:

Democrats will pick up eight senate seats winning Alaska, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota. They will fall short of the 60 seat majority.

2008 House Race:

I think this is where Democrats do the real damage and wind up with 255 members. Sweeping most of the close races and felling the last New England Republican, Chris Shays. Other victims of the tide will include Michelle Bachman, Don Young, Jon Porter, Jean Schmidt, Phil English and Dave Reichert.

Bonus Round Predictions:

1. One of the two, Dick Lugar or Chuck Hagel, will be in Obama's cabinet.
2. Joe Lieberman will be kicked out of the Democratic caucus if Democrats do not reach 60 votes and will be replaced by Arlen Specter and at least one other Senator.
3. Obama's Secretary of State will more than likely be Bill Richardson.
4. Obama's first Supreme Court nominee with either be Deval Patrick or Hillary Clinton.
5. "Joe the Plumber" will run for U.S. Congress in 2010 and lose.
6. Democrats will score decisive gains across the United States as down-ticket politicians ride Obama's coattails to victory.
7. Ed Rendell will be in Barack Obama's cabinet.
8. Joe Biden will be replaced as US Senator by one of the three: Ruth Ann Minner, John Carney or Beau Biden.
9. Bristol Palin will give her child a weird/strange name.
10. The finger-pointing after John McCain's defeat will be legendary.

Philadelphia Phillies: 2008 World Series Champs!

In case you haven't heard, my hometown team, the Philadelphia Phillies, just won the World Series and are the BEST team in baseball. This championship really belongs to Philadelphia fans who patiently stuck with their baseball team for 28 years (25 of which spent waiting for any championship).

Philly fans take a lot of heat for being passionate about their sports. You will not find another city that rewards hard work and dedication and punishes lack thereof like we do. For one year we can say we are truly the "team to beat".

Redistribution of Ignorance: Part II

"We're going to take on Wall Street speculators and bring them to justice". That line has been uttered by many campaigns across the country, whether they be presidential, congressional or state races. It has been quite the rallying cry for people who are angry after seeing their 401k or investments go down the drain.

What exactly is a "Wall Street Speculator"? Well just about every single American is a Wall St. Speculator if they invest in a mutual fund, have a 401k or invest in stocks on the side. Being a speculator doesn't mean that you just hedge on companies to go up or down, it means you invest in stocks period! By investing in mutual funds, 401ks and other investments we are betting the economy will drive businesses to success and thus increase our stake in the company to a higher monetary value.

Another bit of breaking news: Since when has betting on companies been outside of our typical human nature to make money? Everybody is a speculator on something, for example, I speculate that I will retire one day so I'm saving for retirement. Does this make me a retirement speculator? Everybody is looking to point fingers at some scapegoat for the failure of the markets when the true culprit is the society we live in which over the last two decades has become increasingly loose on credit and crying out for transparency.

Redistribution of Ignorance?

People are making a lot of noise about "socialism" these days. You know, that scary monster our grandparent's generation battled and thankfully defeated in the 40's and 50's. People say they don't want a redistribution of wealth and fear that under an Obama presidency.

Here is the real kicker, we already redistribute wealth in this country! We have been doing so since 1913, so you can thank Woodrow Wilson for that one! Where do you think the money for public schools, infrastructure, social programs and war funding comes from? Although it is true that the United States has one of the highest income tax burdens in the world, the company we keep shows you why that might not be such a bad thing.

If you are going to be pissed about Obama's plan, you should do so for the right reasons. Perhaps you are a firm believer in the "trickle-down" effect of tax cuts and would prefer higher earners get tax cuts as well or maybe you think low-income workers should remain at their same level. Just don't call it socialism because under that definition, America is already socialist.

Campbell Brown: I Love You

While much is made about good looks this electoral season (Sarah Palin) and lack thereof (Hillary Clinton), one woman has stood out in my mind as the perfect fusion between intelligence and stunning looks. Campbell Brown has made CNN not only my "go-to" spot for political commentary but also the place to go for an anchor who can steal my heart while massaging my brain cells.

I first met Campbell in early 2008 when she had just begun her career at CNN. She was an evening anchor and I was just someone who happened to be watching the TV. I knew love had instantly blossomed as I could tell that Campbell's trademark smirk and wry smile were being directed solely at me. The brunette vixen had ensnared me and certainly made my love of politics grow as I realized I could begin to enjoy the people that delivered the "news" to me.

Campbell is everything a journalist should be. She is intelligent, witty, sincere, modest, reserved and educated. While often soft spoken, she occasionally channels her inner "Tim Russert" when dealing with BS from the campaign trail. She has a fiery streak and is not afraid to show it.

David Gergen may have his so called "lovers" but I know in my heart that Campbell and I were meant to be together. So what will I do? The only thing I can do: tune into CNN for spot on political commentary, relevant interviews and an occasional smirk that I know will only be meant for me.

The Media Mentality

In this past February, I attended a Barrack Obama rally in Wilmington, DE to check the guy out and to see what he was all about. That part went over well as I got a pretty good feel for him as a person and I stood only fifteen feet away from him. However there was something that did piss me off and that was the denial of my media pass!

For some reason, last night I had a dream that my pass was accepted and I had gotten full media rights for the rally. I have no idea why I dreamed this but thats what my dream was! When I applied for the pass as a blogger, I thought I'd have no trouble getting one, as I viewed myself as a respectable member of the media (although technically mainstream). I even thought to myself, man I am really a big honcho now, once I get this pass. Sadly that was not to be the case, they didn't think I was "real media"

I think it is bloggers who actually drive the spread of "real news" around this country. It was bloggers who outed the Dan Rather story about having evidence that Bush wasn't in the national guard. It was bloggers and average people who defeated the "inevitable candidate" in Hillary Clinton and instead chose Obama. It was also bloggers such as Matt Drudge, who brought down Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinsky scandal. So with that said, can I officially be in the media now?

The Obama Train Slipping Off Of The Tracks

Obama's lead in the electoral college is starting to slip away before our eyes. The upper Midwest (states like MN, WI, MI) is starting to slip away and places where he was competitive before (MT, SD, NC) are starting to move more towards McCain. The strange part to me is that Obama has been under greater fire during previous spots in this election. I thought the Jeremiah Wright situation, "they cling to their guns" and the Hillary Clinton drama at the convention should have all been worse moments than right now.

However I am going to make a few bold predictions. I will say right now that Obama will win the election handily. By this I mean he will win more than 300 electoral votes. You are probably wondering how I came by this figure. First I look at the InTrade prediction market which I have a click able picture up above. Obama is currently around 51% to win election while McCain is at 49%. I figure the polls used to calculate this figure don't include young voters who primarily use cell phones and aren't included in land line polls like Gallup. These figures also don't include minority voters as these voters are much more unlikely to participate in the survey or have a land line phone. With this in mind I increase Obama's percentage in every state by 2-4%.

With that change we can immediately add Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio and possibly Florida. This also means he holds onto all the previous Kerry states. This takes into account young voters and minorities actually showing up at the polls. I think there is still a high enthusiasm for him which will push him into victory. If he can survive the "lull" before the debates he should be set for victory.

EDIT (10/19/08):

Looks like I was right!

Barack Obama: The Journey

On February 3rd 2008, I can say I witnessed history and knew that change was coming. I was standing in line at Barack Obama's rally in Wilmington, Delaware, with my friend Ryan Silberstein, when he turned to me and asked me who I would vote for if I voted in the Democratic primary. When I told him I was undecided, he pressed me further and asked me who I was leaning towards and I told him Barack Obama. What was holding me back? I knew that Hillary was the "safe" choice for Democrats, she would more than likely cruise to victory over McCain and had as good a shot as any to be a two-term president.

Barack Obama was a risk. He was inspiring and charismatic but I worried about what other people would think about a black candidate and if he really had the fighting spirit to defeat a Republican attack that would be blistering without mercy. To his critics he was inexperienced, hope mongering, and a celebrity to boot.

Hearing Obama speak tonight made me proud of my choice and proud of Barack for the long journey he has taken over his life to come to this spot. For someone who could have made millions on Wall St. to go back to the community, provide service to his county and then be called a "celebrity" is absolutely mind boggling to me. Tonight Obama was grounded, sincere, inspirational and humble. I don't know if Obama will win the presidency but he has won over my mind and my heart.

The late Tim Russert once said the American people rarely get it wrong when making the paramount decision of electing their president. I wholeheartedly agree with Russert and know that after all the ballots have been cast in November, the American people, the greatest nation on the face of the earth, are not going to get this one wrong either.

Barack Obama's VP Selection

Joe Biden seems like a nice guy. When I was a college student at the University of Delaware I wrote in to both his office and Tom Carper's office (the other Delaware senator) for a signed picture. Carper's office ignored me while Biden's office had the picture sent to me within 4 days. I thought that was pretty cool.

I really have to disagree with the choice that Obama made here. For all the hoopla and grandiose plans for his V.P. choice to finish up with Joe Biden is just...uninteresting. I also want to say how infuriated I am, that after trusting Obama's team with my cell phone number, he wakes me up at three in the morning to let me know about his mediocre selection.

Joe Biden is going to bring experience to the ticket but like I have said before, Biden is one misplaced comment away from destroying the campaign. If Obama can control him to some degree and keep him succinct at debates and other gatherings, he should be fine. John McCain also has plenty of ammunition to use against Obama as Biden has tons of sound bites, voting records, and skeletons left to dissect.

EDIT (An earlier writing on Biden, 7/10/08):

He has a lot of Chris Dodd characteristics in terms of age and excitement potential (save Delaware). He has good foreign policy experience and would provide an experience boost to the campaign however he is one or two sound-bites away from a campaign blow up. In my head I am seeing Kerry say "I was for the war, before I was against it" all over again. Biden is scary because he could destroy the campaign just by opening his mouth during a candid moment.

EDIT #2:

Even though I'm not sure it was the best pick for Obama, I'm excited about what it does for Delaware. I attended the University of Delaware for four years and I know this must be huge news all over Delaware and especially in New Castle county. Joe Biden is well-liked in Delaware and will be missed if he makes it to higher office. I'm happy for Joe because he is certainly somebody who has the resume to deserve a position like this.

Socialites Around The Horn

Over the past week I have become very impressed with Paris Hilton. Long an afterthought in my mind due to her lack of contribution to society and generally adolescent behavior, she has injected herself into the presidential race like no socialite ever before. In reality it was really John McCain who dragged her into the race but instead of ignoring it or giving irrelevant and un-educated sound bites about it, she has fired back.

In a quirky and intelligent (gasp) ad, she discusses (jokingly of course) how she is now running for president and that she is a celebrity too. Bashing against the "white-haired guy" and the guy for change, she talks about her own hybrid energy plan which really was very interesting.

I never knew she had it in her and my opinion of her has definitely increased. One can only hope Britney Spears will issue a similar ad and give us her positions on health care or terrorism.

EDIT: Seems like CNN agrees as they totally just stole my phrase calling Hilton's ad: "quirky". I made that phrase up, not you CNN!

The End of Hillary Clinton?

Some have speculated that Hillary Clinton lost most of her "Clinton Mojo" after being defeated in the Democratic primary and the aura of the Clintons has finally faded. Anderson Cooper of CNN seems to think Clinton came out of the primary stronger than she went into it. My personal opinion falls somewhere in the middle.

I think Hillary Clinton did several things that could pave the way for higher office if she is so inclined to seek it later. She ended the talk that she could never win over the "Anti-Hillary" crowd. I feel this happened not because this crowd changed their mind on her but because she was in the public spotlight so much they just simply got used to seeing her around. I think she also stepped out of her husband's shadow and answered any questions about her ability to campaign on her own record and achievements. Though there was some talk by her about the achievements during the (first?) Clinton administration, there was much less than I thought and the foundation of her candidacy was not built on it.

On the other hand, I think Hillary Clinton will not only never serve as the president but she will never run for it again. Obama is likely to chose a V.P. with some "rock star" appeal and this person will likely be on the younger side and on the "spunky" side which would all but point to this person being the nominee in '16 (provided Obama is elected and then re-elected). However I don't think this is the end of Hillary. Don't be surprised to see her in some "dark horse" roles such as Attorney General, Secretary of Health & Human Services, or Supreme Court Nominee. The reason for this statement revolves around her passion for the "nitty gritty" of legislating/representing and how she really gets into the minutia of bills and such. She definitely has a reputation of being a taskmaster and will most certainly have some sort of role in the Obama administration if elected.

Obama Weighing Options At VP

Apparently Barack Obama's private list for VP includes both former vice presidential candidate John Edwards and former senator Sam Nunn. This is not news in the sense that the two men have been talked about for some time but never publicly acknowledged by the campaign. Al Gore's name was also discussed publicly for what I believe to be the first time.

The benefits for Edwards include having a proven populist on the ticket which I believe American voters have been gravitating towards since '06. Edwards also brings an appeal for lower income and working-class workers. Nunn brings military experience and could help draw in moderates. Gore on the other hand, could add some spunk and energize the party.

There hasn't been any word on when Obama will make his decision. I would assume he would want to do it before the convention and at a time where he could dominate the headlines. Possibly after the July 4th weekend? Only time will tell.

The Youth Vote: I'm Skeptical

Many eons ago in the year of our lord 2004, youth voters were supposed to be all the rage. With get out the vote efforts such as "Vote or Die" spearheaded by Sean Combs and other famous moguls, 2004 was supposed to be the high point for the youth voter. In some respects it was as youth voting surged eleven points to crest at a respectable (but not overwhelming) 47%. However youth voters did not decide the election as many thought they would.

As we approach November 2008, lo and behold youth voters are all the rage again. With Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, some pundits feel the youth and "trendy" vote will catapult Obama to the White House. However I am skeptical after dissecting the true numbers. With all the hoopla and uproar for the youth vote in 2004 the turnout could not beat that for youth voters in 1992.

In 1992 there was no famous actors spearheading the vote, no "Vote or Die" campaigns and no national movement for the youth vote but that year was able to beat 2004 by 2 percentage points. If I were advising the Obama campaign I would view youth voters as a potential prize and not a lynchpin for the campaign. Potential in the sense that you never know when these historically fickle voters will show up. If the "trendy" appeal to vote Obama in November were to somehow wear away, it will be a long cold winter for Democrats.